Network Revolution and Bottom-Up Federalism

The false ‘problem of unity’ in Burmese opposition politics

Hello friends.

In this week’s blog I argue that the ‘problem’ in Myanmar is not lack of unity among anti-junta forces. A new Burma is being born from the bottom-up. This is a complex and asymmetrical process: unity in diversity!

Nearly five years after the February 2021 military coup in Myanmar, there is a growing risk of narratives swinging behind the junta, as it prepares for rigged elections next month in those areas it controls (about half of the country). With the USA having withdrawn (at least temporarily), the main problem is China and Russias’ support for the brutal and illegitimate junta. Unfortunately, in their desperation for an ‘exit strategy’, some actors and analysts are questioning the credibility of Burmese opposition forces, due to a perceived lack of unity and coherent strategies.

There is some justification to such criticisms, but these mostly fail to appreciate the huge changes in Myanmar since the coup. Rather than a source of weakness, the diversity of opposition actors reflects the inclusive nature of the Spring Revolution, and the ongoing transformation of longstanding ethnic insurgencies into locally based revolutionary states, intent on building a better Burma from the bottom-up.

For the first time since independence, Ethnic Armed Organisations are on the front foot, both politically and militarily in Burma. (While some Ethnic Armed Organisations support the junta, or are trying to stay neutral, the majority have joined the fight, and thus are often referred to as Ethnic Resistance Organisations.) Unlike in 1988–90, when narratives were dominated by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, and Burmese politicians in exile, the political momentum today is with long-standing struggles for ethnic self-determination. New political and military alliances reflect the strength and credibility of ethnic nationality groups, many of which have been providing services and basic governance to some of the most vulnerable displaced and other communities in Southeast Asia, often for many decades. Since the coup, they have been joined by a new generation of young anti–junta activists from the towns and cities, determined to resist the military takeover of their country. In this context, newly emergent structures can look quite messy. However, complexity should not confused with ineffectiveness or incoherence.

Contemporary Myanmar can be seen as a set of complex conflict systems, within which multiple actors are adapting (or not) to a fast-changing situation. Successful adaptations are the building blocks of federalism in the new Burma. For example, with the collapse of centralised education nationwide, the Karen National Union’s (Karen Education and Culture Department) school system teaches nearly 150,000 children in the war zones of Kawthoolei – one of half-a-dozen effective but under-resourced ethnic basic education providers. Although threatened by the collapse in funding this year, ethnic education systems are excellent examples of the credibility of ethnic nations, and their local governance and services delivery systems. The resilience of indigenous communities and networks is extraordinary.

It is of course challenging to build coherent positions and strategies across and between different anti-junta systems. Part of the problem is old-style thinking among some groups, who want to see a democratic Myanmar based on a centralized and top–down state. A complexity theory (systems analysis) approach should lead us to expect higher-level (or federal union level) functions to emerge from the interactions and common positions of network actors and blocs. With key stakeholders sharing common values and identities, developing strategies across networks is an iterative process, involving trial and error.

With justice and conflict dynamics on their side (despite some recent battlefield losses), ethnic armed forces are likely to continue driving the transformation of Burma, from the bottom-up. Emergent federalism in Myanmar will inevitably be asymmetrical, not least because of the different context in various places. This does not mean that ‘bottom-up federalism’ lacks fundamental coherence or resilience.

In complex, adaptive and asymmetrical systems, such as bottom-up federalism, resilience and coherence should be sought at the network level, rather than with a single leading entity. The ‘Pathology of Unity’ in Myanmar has been identified by Matthew Walton as a tendency to assume that political order and organization must be subsumed under a single leader or party (e.g. the centralizing National League for Democracy, or even the junta). However, the country is moving beyond such out-moded politics, to embrace a more networked and collective approach.

Since the coup, articulations of federalism have become increasingly bold, with key actors (Ethnic Armed Organisations and state-based bodies) abandoning the old top–down approach, moving towards asymmetrical bottom–up strategies. With the collapse of the centralised state, increasing demands have been articulated for the recognition of federal unit (or ethnic nation) autonomy. For example, the Ethnic Revolutionary Organizations and Federal Councils Representing States/Nationalities - later simplified as the Multi-Ethnic Council - is an emergent network of post–coup actors, developing bottom–up federal solutions to Myanmar’s crises, composed of armed groups and civil society organisations. In September 2024 this informal nine-member body issued a first statement on bottom-up federalism. A follow-up statement on 12 February 2025 (Union Day, commemorating the 1947 Panglong Agreement) announced the development of Articles of Federal Transitional Arrangement (AFTA), in member groups’ respective areas. It insisted that they “will not accept a holding together model of federalism that will renew centralization” - calling instead to “rebuild our country as a strong nation through bottom-up federalism by strengthening the states.”

The diverse but coordinated set of groups working on the AFTA made significant progress through August 2025, devising guidelines for recognizing accommodating bottom-up federalism at the union level (most groups having already established their own state–level transitional arrangements). The process was joined by the CRPH and a reluctant NUG - but not by the NLD. Earlier this month, two key Ethnic Armed Organisations withdrew from the National Unity Consultative Council, but the AFTA process will hopefully continue. In the meantime, despite recent tensions, strong connections still exist between northern Ethnic Armed Organisations, including powerful Ta’ang, Kokang and Wa groups, and the Kachin Independence Organization. In the west, the Arakan Army, with its confederationist ‘Way of Rakhita’, controls almost the whole of Rakhine State.

Reflecting the increased political and military weight of Ethnic Armed Organisations in the post-coup context, the convergence of armed and political struggles for federal democracy around a bottom-up dynamic is a significant development. Some may be frustrated at the difficulty of identifying a single leading body to engage with on Myanmar. However, new alliances are emerging based on true commonalities of interest and identity; these will consolidate in the future. More importantly, Myanmar looks to be an early outlier of state collapse, in a global context of increasing insecurity and disorder, driven by widespread conflict - and increasingly by climate change. While state actors in the region may prefer that the country not fragment, it’s too late to put the emergent and asymmetrical new Myanmar back into the box. A new networked Burma is emerging from the bottom-up built, on unity amid diversity.

Anyone wanting to support solidarity and relief in Burma, please help the Free Burma Rangers.

You can still watch ‘Myanmar Army on the Ropes’, produced by me, Yan Naing and Tom Sheahan on the Al Jazeera YouTube channel –

winner of New York Film Festival - Golden Tower award for best politics documentary !

These episodes and reflections will remain free to all Substack subscribers. I’m eventually going to start serializing Nancy and the Count, book one – the novel which predicted Operation 1027 ! - and will ask for paid subscriptions.

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